Further, backtesting allows the security selection methodology to be adjusted until past returns are maximized. Since trades have not actually been executed, results may have under- or over-compensated for the impact, if any, of certain market factors, such as lack of liquidity, and may not reflect the impact that certain economic or market factors may have had on the decision-making process. Specifically, backtested results do not reflect actual trading or the effect of material economic and market factors on the decision-making process. Backtested performance is developed with the benefit of hindsight and has inherent limitations. This information is provided for illustrative purposes only. No representations and warranties are made as to the reasonableness of the assumptions. Certain assumptions have been made for modeling purposes and are unlikely to be realized. Changes in these assumptions may have a material impact on the backtested returns presented.
General assumptions include: XYZ firm would have been able to purchase the securities recommended by the model and the markets were sufficiently liquid to permit all trading. Backtested results are calculated by the retroactive application of a model constructed on the basis of historical data and based on assumptions integral to the model which may or may not be testable and are subject to losses. The results reflect performance of a strategy not historically offered to investors and does not represent returns that any investor actually attained. Backtested performance is not an indicator of future actual results. ( See Nike stock forecast on TipRanks)ĭisclaimer: The TipRanks Smart Score performance is based on backtested results. At $125.35, the average price target implies shares will appreciate by 30% in the year ahead.
Holds, resulting in a Moderate Buy consensus rating. Most analysts are with Komp here the ratings break down as 12 to 6 in favor of Buys vs. (To watch Komp’s track record, click here) The implication for investors? Upside of 32% from current levels. “Following a -41% year-to-date stock decline, we see an improving risk/reward especially post the FQ1 report.”Īhead of the print, Komp maintains an Outperform (i.e., Buy) rating along with a $127 price target. “While the fundamental outlook remains somewhat cloudy, we believe sentiment has shifted overly negatively relative to NKE’s strong brand fundamentals, favorable DTC-led model, and in our view solid multi-year earnings potential,” Komp summed up. Nevertheless, looking further down the line, the analyst thinks the shares’ lackluster performance presents an opportunity for those taking the long-term view. Based on “currency and possibly other macro-related headwinds,” Komp is readying for some “negative F2023E EPS revisions.” That said, Komp thinks the outlook could potentially disappoint. In the quarter, Unique Visitors (UVs) climbed by ~30% sequentially, and by an even more impressive 60% from the same period a year ago.
With Nike’s digital business increasingly prominent, a look at website traffic gives credence to Komp’s elevated expectations. Additionally, based on expectations for “healthy growth” ex-currency across North America, EMEA and Latin America, the analyst’s forecast for revenue to hit $12.67 billion is also above consensus at $12.26 billion. On that front, Komp is more upbeat, predicting EPS of $0.99. Will the FQ1 (August quarter) report be able to tip the scales back in Nike’s favor? That remains to be seen, although Baird’s Jonathan Komp thinks that due to concerns around gross margins, China headwinds, and “global economic uncertainty,” the market is braced for Nike to miss FQ1 consensus EPS of $0.93. The shares have underperformed the broader markets this year and currently sit 42% into the red on a year-to-date basis. While undoubtedly one of the stock market’s giants, the swish machine has in no way been immune to the bearish market developments. After the market action comes to a close today, Nike ( NKE ) will take its turn to deliver its latest financial report.
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